Advance Estimates of National Income, 2014-15



Advance Estimates of National Income, 2014-15

And

Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third Quarter (Oct-Dec), 2014-15


This Press Release is embargoed against publication, telecast or circulation on internet till 5.30 pm today i.e. 9th February 2015.



     The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, had revised its base year to 2011-12 and released revised annual estimate of National Income and other macroeconomic aggregates on 30th January 2015. Advance estimates of National Income for the financial year 2014-15, at constant (2011-12) and current prices are being released. Now, these are presented in Statements 1-4.

2.         Quarterly estimates of GDP for the third quarter October-December Q3, 2014-15 both at constant (2011-12) and current prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also being released. Quarterly estimates of previous years from 2011-12 onwards have also undergone revision on account of change of base year to 2011-12 and in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts@. Quarterly estimates for the years 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15 are presented in Statements 5 to 8.The Industry-wise estimates are presented as Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices. A note on changes made due to change in base year is given in Appendix. The appendix also provides comparison of estimates for the years 2011-12 onwards released in 2004-05 and the new series (2011-12).

3.  GDP growth rates for 2014-15 and Q1, Q2, Q3 of 2014-15 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:



I           ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2014-15
       
4.        These estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture &Cooperation(DAC), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of

@http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/Mod_policy_GDP_econ_Aggregates28apr14.p
Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor general of India (CAG). Performance of key sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc, communication, banking and insurance have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during April-December 2014  have also been taken into account while compiling advance estimates for manufacturing and mining which is a deviation from earlier compilation method.

5.                  The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

A.                ESTIMATES AT CONSTANT (2011-12) PRICES

Gross Domestic Product

6.        Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of `106.57 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2013-14 of `99.21 lakh crore, released on 30th January 2015. The growth in GDP during 2014-15 is estimated at 7.4 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 6.9 per cent in 2013-14.

Gross Value Added(GVA)at Basic Prices

7.         Real GVA, i.e,GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from `91.70 lakh crore in 2013-14 to `98.58 lakh crore in 2014-15.Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2014-15 is 7.5 percent against growth of 6.6 percent in 2013-14.

8.        The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 percent are, `financial, real estate and professional services`, ‘trade, hotels, transport,communication and services related to broadcasting’,  `public administration, defence and other services’, and ‘electricity, gas, water supply& other utility services.  The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘construction’ and ‘manufacturing’ is estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 6.8 percent respectively.

Agriculture

9.         The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 1.1 per cent in its GVA during 2014-15, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 3.7 per cent. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in 2014-15, production of foodgrains is expected to decline by 2.9 per cent as compared to increase of 3.0 per cent in the previous agriculture year. Production of pulses and oilseeds is also expected to decline by 3.4 and 9.6 per cent respectively as compared to increase of 5.0 and 6.3 per cent in the previous agriculture year. However, among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 1.1 per cent during the year 2014-15 as compared to increase of 3.5 percent in previous agriculture year.

Industry

10.      The estimated growth in the ‘manufacturing’ ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’,  and  ‘construction’ is  estimated  to be  6.8 per cent,  2.3 per cent, 9.6 percent and 4.5 per cent, respectively, during 2014-15 as compared to  growth of 5.3 percent, 5.4 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, in 2013-14.


11.      According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 2.5 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2014-15, as compared to the growth rates of (-)2.1 per cent,(-)0.4 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2013-14. Private corporate sector growth in the manufacturing sector during April-Dec 2014 was 8.0 percent..


12.       The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel consumption have registered growth rates of 7.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, during April-December, 2014-15 as compared to corresponding  growth rates of 3.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, during April-December, 2013.

Services

13.       The estimated growth in GVA for the trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting services during 2014-15 is placed at 8.4 per cent as against growth of 11.1 percent in the previous year. This is mainly on account of decline  of 5.7 per cent in the sales of commercial vehicles and reduced rate of increase in sales tax collection at 13.9 percent during April-December 2014 as compared to 19 percent in 2013-14. Cargo handled at major sea ports increased by 5.0 per cent during April-December, 2014-15  as compared to 1.9 percent during April-December, 2013-14 while passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation increased by 10.6 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively during April-November, 2014-15 as compared to 7.8 percent and 1.3 percent respectively during April-November, 2013-14. The sector, `financial, real estate and professional services`, is expected to show a growth rate of 13.7 per cent during 2014-15 as compared to growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2013-14. There was 11.5 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 10.5 per cent growth in bank credit as on December 2014as compared to 15.9 percent and 14.5 percent respectively as on December 2013. Also, private corporate sector registered growth of 32 percent in the real estate and professional services during April- Dec, 2014-15.

Per Capita Income

14.       The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of `74,193 as compared to `69,959 for the year 2013-14. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.1 per cent during 2014-15, as against the previous year`s estimate of 5.4 per cent.



B.      ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES

Gross Domestic Product
15.       GDP at current prices in the year 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of `126.54 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 11.5 per cent over the year 2013-14 of `113.45 lakh crore (First revised estimate with the growth rate of 13.6 percent).

National Income
16.       The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to be `112.18 lakh crore during 2014-15, as against `100.56lakh crore for the year 2013-14. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a growth rate of 11.5per cent in 2014-15 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 13.7 per cent.

Per Capita Income
17.       The per capita net national income during 2014-15 is estimated to be `88,538showing a rise of 10.1 per cent as compared to `80,388 during 2013-14 with the growth rate of  12.3 percent.

II   ANNUALESTIMATES OF FINAL EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2014-15

18.       Along with the Advance Estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity, the Advance Estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices are also released. These estimates have been compiled using the data from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and expenditure of Central Government.  Various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are discussed  in the following paragraphs.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure
19.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `76.43 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `67.72 lakh crore in 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `61.08 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `57.04 lakh crore in 2013-14. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 60.4 per cent and 57.3 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.7 per cent and 57.5 per cent, respectively in 2013-14.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure
20.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `14.86 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `12.77lakh crore in 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `11.94 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `10.86 lakh crore in 2013-14. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 11.7 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.3 per cent and 10.9 per cent, respectively in 2013-14.


Gross Fixed Capital Formation
21.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `36.13 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `33.68 lakh crore in 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `31.76 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `30.50 lakh crore in 2013-14. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 28.6 per cent and 29.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.7 per cent and 30.7 per cent, respectively in 2013-14.The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 7.3 percent at current prices and 4.1 percent at constant prices. The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices is same as 1.3 per cent in 2014-15and 2013-14.

22.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2012-13 and 2013-14 and 2014-15, at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.


III      QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER) OF  2014-15

(a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices
23.       The three quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2 and Q3. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2014-15 is estimated at `24.97 lakhcrore, as against `23.24lakh  crore in Q3 of 2013-14, showing a growth rate of 7.5percent.

24.       Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (-0.4percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (2.9 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (4.2 percent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply and other utility services’ (10.1percent) ‘construction’ (1.7percent), Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting ` (7.2percent), `financial, real estate and  professional  services ` (15.9 percent), and Public administration, defence  and Other Services` (20.0 percent).

25.       According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 2.5 percent, (-)0.4 percent and 11.4 percent respectively, in Q3 of 2014-15, as compared to the growth rates of 0.5 percent, (-)1.6 percent and 5.0 percent respectively in these sectors in Q3, 2013-14. Quarterly performance of private corporate sector in the mining and manufacturing industry has been taken into account in compilation of quarterly estimates.

26.       The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown decline in growth rates of 5.4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively in Q3 of 2014-15, as against the growth rates of (-)0.3 percent and (-)1.7 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of 4.4 percent and 6.9 percent respectively in Q3 of 2014-15. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 7.2 percent in 2014-15 as against 12.4 percent in Q3 of 2013-14.

27.       The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2014-15 are estimated at`15.34lakh crore and `7.84 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2014-15 is 57.0 percent and 29.1 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.1percent and 30.8percent, respectively in Q3 of 2013-14.


(b) Estimates at current prices

28.       GVA at current basic prices in Q3 of 2014-15 is estimated at `29.57lakh crore, as against `27.15lakhcrore in Q3 of 2013-14, showing a growth of 8.9percent.

29.       The PFCE and GFCF at current prices in Q3 of 2014-15 are estimated at `19.31lakh crore and `8.86lakhcrore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2014-15 are estimated at 60.5percent and 27.8percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 61.5percent and 29.4percent, respectively in Q3 of 2013-14.

30.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Incomeand Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP  for Advance  Estimates , third quarter (Q3) and April-Dec estimates for years, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 12.

31.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2015 (Q4 of 2014-15) and provisional annual estimates for the year 2014-15 will be on 29.05.2015.
                   
STATEMENT 1: Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2014-15 at constant (2011- 12 Prices)


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